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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."